Wimbledon 2026 men's draw analysis: Sinner seeking to defend title as Djokovic eyes No. 25

[p]It is always a special feeling when the first players step out onto the lush grass of Centre Court in the early afternoon on Monday, before a sharp silence engulfs the stadium to indicate the start of play.[/p][p]Ahead of the tournament, let's take a deeper look at the men's draw, analysing who has landed in the most favourable section, and who will be having sleepless nights, before making a final prediction.[/p][p][b]The women's draw analysis will be out tomorrow.[/b][/p][h2]First quarter[/h2][p][b]Seeds: [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/sinner-jannik/6HdC3z4H/"]Jannik Sinner[/a] (1), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/medvedev-daniil/O8qG0Nhb/"]Daniil Medvedev[/a] (8), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/ruud-casper/zN9UpRqp/"]Casper Ruud[/a] (11), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/darderi-luciano/jeXTxMIp/"]Luciano Darderi[/a] (14), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/paul-tommy/pd3ye1BS/"]Tommy Paul[/a] (21), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/jodar-rafael/OdngshVK/"]Rafael Jodar[/a] (23), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/nakashima-brandon/ETGnbrpH/"]Brandon Nakashima[/a] (28), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/buse-ignacio/A1LQjAPb/"]Ignacio Buse[/a] (31)[/b][/p][p]To be honest, it is a straightforward section for defending champion Sinner, but realistically, is there any path to the semi-finals that would make us say otherwise? His biggest threat is the weather, but it seems the scorching heat in London is set to pass, so he needn't worry about the elements he succumbed to at Roland Garros.[/p][p]I don't trust Ruud on grass at all (unless he is playing golf), and bear in mind he has never been past the second round at Wimbledon. Meanwhile, Medvedev's form at the Slams has been well below par. Last year, he won just a single match at majors, and a few weeks ago he lost in the first round in Paris. There isn't a lot to be confident about.[/p][image alt="Sinner practicing at Wimbledon" id="1c5e7ad3-48dc-4abb-9c85-505a442d72e8" credit-line="Adrian Dennis / AFP / AFP / Profimedia" guid="0213751a-5eb3-416a-8a7e-b9723ce67ad3" original-width="1400" original-height="933" /][p]However, I am really liking the look of Paul. He is a fantastic grass court player, reached the quarter-finals two years ago, and is coming off the back of a run to the Queen's final. [/p][p][b]Prediction: Sinner to beat Paul in the quarter-finals[/b][/p][p]On grass, Paul is creative, bold and capable enough to come to the net often, moves superbly, takes the ball early, while keeping it really low. He is so fun to watch. Yet Sinner's relentlessness from the back of the court and ability to suffocate opponents means he should be able to negate the Americans' strengths, and he should reach the semi-finals.[/p][infobox id="a9570b4f-da31-4683-ae60-9f920c0540d9" /][h2]Second quarter[/h2][p][b]Seeds: [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/auger-aliassime-felix/CzXh4LAb/"]Felix Auger-Aliassime[/a] (3), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/djokovic-novak/AZg49Et9/"]Novak Djokovic[/a] (7), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/rublev-andrey/AeAn4gP0/"]Andrey Rublev[/a] (12), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/tien-learner/xUHOBJK6/"]Learner Tien[/a] (16), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/davidovich-fokina-alejandro/0zQXLfz4/"]Alejandro Davidovich Fokina[/a] (22), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/fonseca-joao/tv073LUc/"]Joao Fonseca[/a] (24), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/rinderknech-arthur/pIxZZsof/"]Arthur Rinderknech[/a] (25), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/norrie-cameron/pvzhJGY8/"]Cameron Norrie[/a] (26)[/b][/p][p]Wimbledon is probably Djokovic's best chance to get his hands on Grand Slam number 25, but he will be slightly frustrated that he has been placed in Sinner's half of the draw, although his own quarter should pose him very few problems. In all likelihood, he will need to overcome Sinner at some point anyway.[/p][p]A bit of a throwback match with [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/tsitsipas-stefanos/hb6oWfc6/"]Stefanos Tsitsipas[/a] could be on the cards in the second round, while Rublev and Fonseca won't inject much fear into Djokovic considering the gulf in their grass-court prowess. Rinderknech could be a tricky little fourth-round contest, but they are all winnable.[/p][embed guid="ec8eaef9-7bf1-4c5c-9eb6-d5056a0b3371" url="https://x.com/Wimbledon/status/2069005597521961347" social-type="twitter" /][p]Third seed Auger-Aliassime will also be pleased, but Tien in the fourth round could be a real slugfest, much like their meeting in Halle.[/p][p][b]Prediction: Djokovic to beat Auger-Aliassime in the quarter-finals[/b][/p][p]I think the legendary Serb will be happy with this match-up. Auger-Aliassime's big serve and first strike tennis could see him through to the last eight, but Djokovic is the greatest returner of all time, and he will enjoy targeting the Canadian's backhand. Another Wimbledon last-four appearance looks on the cards for Djokovic, which would be remarkable. [/p][h2]Third quarter[/h2][p][b]Seeds: [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/shelton-ben/QNuG0Gzb/"]Ben Shelton[/a] (4), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/de-minaur-alex/EZgZ9Xfh/"]Alex de Minaur[/a] (5), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/cobolli-flavio/zDtaCcPe/"]Flavio Cobolli[/a] (9), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/mensik-jakub/UFj257G8/"]Jakub Mensik[/a] (15), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/khachanov-karen/4bNPtZT5/"]Karen Khachanov[/a] (19), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/arthur-fils/IoIhUqIN/"]Arthur Fils[/a] (20), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/humbert-ugo/O4ywE5Ah/"]Ugo Humbert[/a] (27), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/tabilo-alejandro/YgVnM5vO/"]Alejandro Tabilo[/a] (30)[/b][/p][p]Shelton comes into Wimbledon off the back of a fantastic grass-court season, winning the Stuttgart title as well as reaching the quarter-finals of Halle. His explosive groundstrokes and booming left-handed serve are tailor-made for this surface, as he can drag opponents wide on the ad court, which is particularly dangerous on the slick grass. Equally importantly, he relishes playing on the biggest of stages, consistently performing well at the Slams.[/p][image alt="Shelton career stats" id="c923a0ba-fbf6-4ae1-91ca-25f8d0bbb507" credit-line="BACKGRID / Backgrid UK / Profimedia / Opta by StatsPerform" guid="cde1518c-fb8e-453c-96ff-73a680f2c0e9" original-width="1080" original-height="1080" /][p]I'm a little worried by De Minaur's performances over the past few months, and Mensik is yet to convince on grass. Fils' fitness remains a concern, so I can see Cobolli continuing his good form after reaching the Roland Garros final at the start of the month. He did make a run to the last eight at this event last year, too, and gave Djokovic a real game.[/p][p][b]Prediction: Shelton to beat Cobolli in the quarter-finals[/b][/p][p]Shelton's form and quality on grass are far too enticing to ignore at the moment, and I am heavily backing him to reach the semis. The American was defeated by Sinner in the quarters last year, but he won't have to worry about the Italian until the final this time around - if he can get there.[/p][h2]Fourth quarter [/h2][p][b]Seeds: [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/zverev-alexander/dGbUhw9m/"]Alexander Zverev[/a] (2), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/fritz-taylor/UH09iaZ6/"]Taylor Fritz[/a] (6), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/bublik-alexander/t0WN9vR6/"]Alexander Bublik[/a] (10), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/lehecka-jiri/6PlgfXKR/"]Jiri Lehecka[/a] (13), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/tiafoe-frances/AHDLJaph/"]Frances Tiafoe[/a] (17), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/cerundolo-francisco/lWQ3G6gB/"]Francisco Cerundolo[/a] (18), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/etcheverry-tomas-martin/AXL5qpKa/"]Tomas Martin Etcheverry[/a] (29), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/arnaldi-matteo/hlVLAfZK/"]Matteo Arnaldi[/a] (32)[/b][/p][p]Zverev must not believe his luck. Fritz has ended up in his quarter... again! Fritz leads their head-to-head 10-5, but more remarkably, the American has beaten the Roland Garros champion seven times in a row - including most recently in the Halle semi-finals on Zverev's turf.[/p][p]Fritz has recently returned to full health after some injury issues, and reaching the finals of Stuttgart and Halle will give him tonnes of confidence that he can go deep at Wimbledon. He is an elite player on grass.[/p][p]I do think both players will end up meeting in the last eight, but Lehecka, Tiafoe and Cerundolo are three very in-form players - the latter two just winning titles at Halle and Queen's, respectively. They could cause a lot of problems for both.[/p][image alt="Zverev vs Fritz last four matches" id="82e419a8-cc54-48ad-acb0-7921f3dd7d3e" credit-line="Flashscore" guid="3674239c-369f-4d5b-813d-f944d423e2b6" original-width="1080" original-height="1080" /][p]By the way, Fritz's first-round clash with former world number four and home favourite [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/draper-jack/SWxNhpmK/"]Jack Draper[/a] is the match of the first round! Definitely one to watch.[/p][p][b]Prediction: Fritz to beat Zverev in the quarter-finals[/b][/p][p]Styles make fights, and unfortunately for Zverev, I think Fritz is going to get the better of him again. The German struggles returning Fritz's serve, and grass only amplifies that advantage. Also, Fritz is really comfortable off the backhand wing and isn't afraid to get into cross-court exchanges with Zverev.[/p][h2]Semi-final and final predictions[/h2][p][b]Semi-final 1: Jannik Sinner to beat Novak Djokovic[/b][/p][p][b]Semi-final 2: Taylor Fritz to beat Ben Shelton[/b][/p][p][b]Final: Jannik Sinner to beat Taylor Fritz[/b][/p][p]I have predicted Sinner to win every Grand Slam this season, so third time is the charm, right? Really, there are only two players who can stop Sinner from winning a major. The first is [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/alcaraz-garfia-carlos/UkhgIFEq/"]Carlos Alcaraz[/a], and the second is Djokovic if he can roll back the years, which he proved he can when he defeated Sinner in Melbourne in January.[/p][p]So, with Alcaraz out, realistically, the only guy who can beat him is Djokovic. But the Serb will have to play out of his skin, and the small margins will have to fall his way, just as they did at the Australian Open.[/p][embed guid="f12c299f-4e42-4874-9944-8d8e67bd251c" url="https://x.com/Wimbledon/status/2070068502552080682" social-type="twitter" /][p]I am not sure he can execute that again, and although I think he will push Sinner hard, the Italian will exact revenge. He should then have too much for Fritz in the final and lift a fifth Grand Slam.[/p][p]I love Fritz's game on the grass, and I think he can make life difficult for Sinner. But having lost his last four matches against the world number one, it'll be a bridge too far. Sinner is going back-to-back![/p][h2][a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/tennis/atp-singles/wimbledon/"]Follow the men's singles at Wimbledon with Flashscore![/a][/h2]