Bafana Bafana permutations: How they can advance to the World Cup knockout stages

[p]Another draw after Thursday’s 1-1 stalemate with the [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/czech-republic/6LHwBDGU/"]Czech Republic[/a] would give them the slimmest of chances as one of the eight best third-placed teams, but it is highly unlikely that will be enough.[/p][p]A mathematician ran the scenarios ahead of the tournament and suggested three points and a -1 goal difference would likely be enough to secure one of those eight places.[/p][p][a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/south-korea/K6Gs7P6G/"]South Korea[/a]’s 1-0 loss to co-hosts [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/mexico/O6iHcNkd/"]Mexico[/a] in a poor showing will have given Hugo Broos’ side massive hope as it takes goal difference and things like Fair Play points out of the equation.[/p][p]If Bafana beat the Koreans they will move to four points and above the latter on the table, with the Asian side left on three points.[/p][p]That would mean Bafana finish third at worst, but the more likely scenario would be that they end second in the pool, assuming the Czechs do not beat Mexico in Mexico City, which seems highly unlikely.[/p][embed guid="7e438803-7709-40eb-b368-e6a8fb5f9bc1" url="https://x.com/BafanaBafana/status/2067671228001787936?s=20" social-type="twitter" /][p]The only caveat to that is Mexico are now certain to finish top of Group A, so have little incentive bar momentum and could well rotate their squad and give fringe players a run.[/p][p]If the Czechs and [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/south-africa/W2ijYvlr/"]South Africa[/a] both win, then they each finish on four points.[/p][p]The first decider to separate teams in this World Cup is head-to-head, but they drew 1-1.[/p][p]The next criterion is goal difference in all group games. The Czechs are currently -1 and Bafana are -2.[/p][p]Should that finish level as well, then we go to goals scored. The European side have netted twice and Bafana once.[/p][p]If there is still nothing to separate the sides, we go to Fair Play points, where Bafana are trailing by virtue of their two red cards against Mexico.[/p][p]They have amassed 12 to the Czechs’ one. There is no coming back in any realistic scenario for Bafana.[/p][embed guid="edcba60c-35e8-48a3-a2e7-b350e7fafb93" url="https://x.com/BafanaBafana/status/2067669961871405560?s=20" social-type="twitter" /][p]But having said all that, the situation is quite simple for Bafana. Win against South Korea and they will finish second or third in the group and advance.[/p][p]Lose or draw and they will be going home at the end of the group stage for the fourth time at a World Cup.[/p][p]Should they finish second, they will meet the runner-up in Group B in the Last 32, one of co-hosts [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/canada/x4toKORL/"]Canada[/a] or [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/switzerland/rHJ2vy1B/"]Switzerland[/a].[/p][p]If they end third, they will have to see how the chips fall, but it will either be the winner of Group E, likely [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/germany/ptQide1O/"]Germany[/a] or [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/ivory-coast/G2FRjBgn/"]Ivory Coast[/a], or Group G, likely [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/belgium/GbB957na/"]Belgium[/a], [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/egypt/bejDn7NN/"]Egypt[/a] or [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/iran/xrRx85iA/"]Iran[/a].[/p]