Sabalenka seeking revenge against Rybakina in star-studded desert duel

[h2][a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/game/tennis/rybakina-e-UDzElXdm/sabalenka-a-vyhksgUB/?mid=rVLW9tkS"]Sabalenka vs Rybakina - 19:00 CET[/a][/h2][h2]Match news and form[/h2][p][a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/sabalenka-aryna/vyhksgUB/"][b]Aryna [/b][/a][b][a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/sabalenka-aryna/vyhksgUB/"]Sabalenka[/a][/b] has been invincible behind her serve throughout the tournament, and it remained the case against [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/noskova-linda/zHMiAkw6/"]Linda Noskova[/a] in the semi-finals, where she prevailed 6-3, 6-4. With 11 aces and a 74% first-serve percentage, the top seed faced little trouble against the Czech and reached her third Indian Wells final as a result.[/p][p]Overall, Sabalenka has lost just two service games in her five matches at the tournament and, in the process, dismissed the likes of former champion [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/osaka-naomi/MDM4BKiA/"]Naomi Osaka[/a] and Montreal champion [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/mboko-victoria/AqVez8TJ/"]Victoria Mboko[/a]. She consolidates her near-perfect win-loss record in the season to 16-1.[/p][p]Sabalenka began the season with a title in Brisbane but was unable to conclude her time in Australia with a fifth career Grand Slam title, losing to Elena [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/rybakina-elena/UDzElXdm/"]Rybakina[/a] in the Australian Open final. Nevertheless, she is the deserving world No. 1, having already played 11 finals since the start of 2025 and won five of them.[/p][embed guid="21807585-6a66-44b0-804a-430afc22ad63" url="https://x.com/BNPPARIBASOPEN/status/2032652530459750557" social-type="twitter" /][p][b][a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/rybakina-elena/UDzElXdm/"]Elena Rybakina[/a][/b] got tight towards the end of her semi-final when she lost three games in a row, but eventually steadied herself to defeat [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/monfils-elina/jyngIesG/"]Elina Svitolina[/a], 7-5, 6-4. The 2023 champion has therefore returned to the Indian Wells final after negotiating tricky matches against [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/baptiste-hailey/Cjagsdf4/"]Hailey Baptiste[/a] and [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/pegula-jessica/KdojxrAR/"]Jessica Pegula[/a] earlier in the week.[/p][p]Rybakina is having an even better year than Sabalenka, having won her second career Grand Slam title at the Australian Open after beating three top-six players in the final rounds, including Sabalenka in the decider. However, she endured an unremarkable Middle East swing, including a retirement in Dubai.[/p][image alt="Head-to-head record: Last four matches" id="73847ffd-3436-4c01-bc9a-60424bd6d592" credit-line="Flashscore" guid="8db410a1-6422-443a-aa23-39641d68a1d9" original-width="1080" original-height="1080" /][h2]Head-to-head[/h2][p]Sabalenka leads 8-7. However, Rybakina has won seven of their last eleven meetings, including the most recent ones in the finals of the WTA Finals and Australian Open.[/p][h2]Stats & facts[/h2][p]• Sabalenka has won 22 out of her 42 career title-match appearances, but only four of her last 10.[/p][p]• Sabalenka suffered defeats in both of her previous final showings in Indian Wells, losing to Rybakina in 2023 and [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/andreeva-mirra/lI6fOOat/"]Mirra Andreeva[/a] in 2025.[/p][p]• Rybakina stands 12-11 in career finals but has converted each of her last five, from Stuttgart 2024 to the Australian Open 2026, into trophies.[/p][p]• Rybakina has won nine of her last 13 meetings with reigning world No. 1 players, with all victories coming against [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/swiatek-iga/jNyZsXZe/"]Iga Swiatek[/a] or Sabalenka.[/p][h2]Betting analysis[/h2][p]The tournament could not have asked for two more deserving players to compete for the trophy on Sunday. The head-to-head record suggests this match is likely to go down to the wire.[/p][p]Rybakina already knows how to beat Sabalenka in the Indian Wells final, having done so in 2023. However, Sabalenka is playing slightly sharper tennis than the world No. 3 right now and is expected to eke out the trophy in three sets.[/p][image alt="Profile of Aryna Sabalenka" id="43b4a343-44ef-482a-a043-0b42070aca7c" credit-line="Flashscore" guid="7b56816e-6280-4f08-b225-682d2dde8b91" original-width="1080" original-height="1080" /][h2]Sabalenka in 2026[/h2][p][b]Best results:[/b] Brisbane (title); Australian Open (final)[/p][p][b]Best results on outdoor hard courts:[/b] Brisbane (title); Australian Open (final)[/p][p][b]Record:[/b] 16-1[/p][p][b]Record in the last 10 matches:[/b] 9-1[/p][p][b]Record on outdoor hard courts:[/b] 16-1[/p][p][b]Record against top 10:[/b] 2-1 (career 57-43)[/p][p][b]Record in WTA 1000 finals:[/b] 0-0 (career 9-4)[/p][p][b]Record in finals:[/b] 1-1 (career 22-20)[/p][p][b]Grand Slams:[/b] Australian Open (final)[/p][h2]Sabalenka at the BNP Paribas Open[/h2][p][b]Career record: [/b]20-6[/p][p][b]Best result:[/b] final (2023, 2025, 2026)[/p][p][b]Last year's result:[/b] Final[/p][p][b]Record in finals:[/b] 0-2[/p][p][b]Preparation: [/b]None[/p][p][b]Road to the final:[/b] Bye, [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/sakatsume-himeno/zZoU3kJa/"]Sakatsume[/a] (6-4, 6-2), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/garin-cristian/U73k5I15/"]Cristian[/a] (6-4, 6-1), (16) Osaka (6-2, 6-4), (10) Mboko (7-6, 6-4), (14) Noskova (6-3, 6-4)[/p][image alt="Profile of Elena Rybakina" id="4799c10b-5530-4ff1-af36-b5137cecdc60" credit-line="Flashscore" guid="02b9ebc1-3e9e-4bfa-b820-0d26bb6433b9" original-width="1080" original-height="1080" /][h2]Rybakina in 2026[/h2][p][b]Best results:[/b] Australian Open (title)[/p][p][b]Best results on outdoor hard courts:[/b] Australian Open (title)[/p][p][b]Record:[/b] 17-3[/p][p][b]Record in the last 10 matches:[/b] 8-2[/p][p][b]Record on outdoor hard courts:[/b] 17-3[/p][p][b]Record against top 10:[/b] 5-0 (career 36-27)[/p][p][b]Record in WTA 1000 finals:[/b] 0-0 (career 2-3)[/p][p][b]Record in finals:[/b] 1-0 (career 12-11)[/p][p][b]Grand Slams:[/b] Australian Open (title)[/p][h2]Rybakina at the BNP Paribas Open[/h2][p][b]Career record: [/b]16-3[/p][p][b]Best result:[/b] Title (2023)[/p][p][b]Last year's result:[/b] Round of 16[/p][p][b]Record in finals:[/b] 1-0[/p][p][b]Preparation:[/b] Doha (quarter-finals), Dubai (round of 16)[/p][p][b]Road to the final:[/b] Bye, Baptiste (7-6, 2-6, 6-2), (28) [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/kostyuk-marta/8CZqQdSa/"]Kostyuk[/a] (6-4, 6-4), [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/kartal-sonay/nFb01JTe/"]Kartal[/a] (6-4, 4-3 ret.), (5) Pegula (6-1, 7-6), (9) Svitolina (7-5, 6-4)[/p][h2][a href="https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current/indian-wells/404/daily-schedule?day=15"]Sunday's schedule[/a] | [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/tennis/wta-singles/indian-wells/results/"]Results[/a][/h2]