France to beat Spain to clinch 2026 World Cup title according to economists

[p]For 160 respondents from nearly every continent, this poll conducted once every four years is a welcome break from their ‌macroeconomic forecasting in an era of wars, energy shocks and revived "transitory" versus persistent inflation debates.[/p][p]Their brief this time is the biggest World Cup yet - a ‌48-team tournament spanning 104 matches across the United States, [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/canada/x4toKORL/"]Canada[/a] and [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/mexico/O6iHcNkd/"]Mexico[/a] - the first staged across three countries.[/p][p][a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/lesotho/fTM4XmgO/"]Les Bleus[/a] ‌drew 35% of the vote in the May 11-June 5 poll to add a third star to their badge, edging Spain on ‌31% - broadly in line with betting platforms like Polymarket - a result that would return Europe to the ‌pinnacle of international football.[/p][p][a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/france/QkGeVG1n/"]France[/a]'s [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/deschamps-didier/M9jPX2nf/"]Didier Deschamps[/a] would become the first coach since Italy’s [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/magni-vittorio/0APyrrqj/"]Vittorio Pozzo[/a] in 1938 to win two World Cups - and the only one to do so after also lifting the trophy as a player in 1998.[/p][p][a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/argentina/f9OppQjp/"]Argentina[/a], reigning champions and top of the current FIFA world rankings, [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/portugal/WvJrjFVN/"]‌Portugal[/a] and [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/england/j9N9ZNFA/"]England[/a] rounded out the top five choices.[/p][p][b]"After the disappointment of the ⁠2022 final, France looks well equipped to go one better ‌this time," [/b]said Cathal Kennedy, senior economist at RBC and based in London.[/p][p]"The squad retains a number of members of the team ​that reached the final who are now reaching the peak of their careers, complemented by the emergence of some members of the [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/psg/CjhkPw0k/"]Paris St Germain[/a] side."[/p][p][b]"Added to that, they should have a well-rested [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/mbappe-kylian/Wn6E2SED/"]Kylian Mbappe[/a] to ​call on for the tournament."[/b][/p][p]Mbappe, who just finished another prolific season at [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/real-madrid/W8mj7MDD/"]Real Madrid[/a], was the poll’s pick for both the Golden Ball, awarded to the tournament’s best player, and the Golden Boot for top scorer.[/p][p]He only just pipped England ⁠captain [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/kane-harry/v5HSlEAa/"]Harry Kane[/a], the European Golden Shoe winner ​after a career-best 61-goal season with [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/bayern-munich/nVp0wiqd/"]Bayern Munich[/a].[/p][p]There's likely another milestone within reach for both. Mbappe and Kane, on 12 and eight World Cup goals respectively, are among those chasing German great [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/klose-miroslav/tO31cZrF/"]Miroslav Klose's[/a] all-time record of 16, along with [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/messi-lionel/vgOOdZbd/"]Lionel Messi[/a] on 13.[/p][embed guid="1d4ed963-c060-42b6-abab-0796f04c903d" url="https://x.com/equipedefrance/status/2063536079861346418" social-type="twitter" /][h2]Basic instinct[/h2][p]There were the dreamers. Two respondents picked [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/japan/ULXPdOUj/"]Japan[/a], one Mexico and one [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/morocco/IDKYO3R8/"]Morocco[/a] - any of which would make for ‌a World Cup fairytale - among the 8% who said loyalty had guided their choices. An overwhelming 73% said they went with gut feeling.[/p][p][b]"As with any model, the forecast was adjusted with a heavy dose of gut feel!"[/b] quipped Shannon Bold, senior economist at the Bureau of Economic Research in Johannesburg.[/p][p]Around 20% relied on data and models for their predictions.[b] "The macroeconomists sat around together and created a house view,"[/b] said [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/claudio-ramos/Myzz6wYk/"]Claudio Govender[/a] at RMB.[/p][p]But for [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/brazil/I9l9aqLq/"]Brazil[/a], the poll view was bleak.[/p][p]Even [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/ancelotti-carlo/nZQG5IgJ/"]Carlo Ancelotti[/a]’s arrival as coach has failed to lift confidence, with nearly a third picking the [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/selecao-concelhia/riZoKsCl/"]Selecao[/a] - quarter-final losers to [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/croatia/K8aznggo/"]Croatia[/a] in 2022 - as the biggest football powerhouse likely to disappoint, followed by England and [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/germany/ptQide1O/"]Germany[/a].[/p][p][a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/norway/8rP6JO0H/"]Norway[/a], powered by [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/manchester-city/Wtn9Stg0/"]Manchester City[/a] striker [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/haaland-erling/UmV9iQmE/"]Erling Haaland[/a], may supply the drama - picked by 21% as the underdogs most likely to surprise, ahead of Japan on ‌15%.[/p][p]The search for breakout stars was wide open. Respondents scattered their votes across 46 names but Spain’s 18-year-old forward [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/lamine-yamal/lAt3vEub/"]Lamine ​Yamal[/a] topped the list.[/p][p]France’s [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/maignan-mike/S6gN2QNC/"]Mike Maignan[/a], Argentina’s [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/martinez-emiliano/88Z5NeIl/"]Emiliano Martinez[/a] and Spain’s [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/simon-unai/Ao9Vw3hi/"]Unai Simon[/a] were among the favourites for the ‌Golden Glove, awarded to the tournament’s best goalkeeper.[/p][h2]Costly cup[/h2][p]Off the pitch, organisers face a daunting logistical test as millions of fans prepare to descend on North America, with affordability already a flashpoint.[/p][p]Expensive tickets, accommodation and cross-country travel have raised fears this could be the costliest World Cup yet for fans.[/p][p]So much for the break from inflation.[/p][p]Over 60% said 2026 inflation was still easier to forecast than football’s biggest prize - though recent years have made that ⁠a low bar.[/p][p][b]"We know when the World Cup is going ⁠to end,” [/b]said [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/player/kabak-ozan/nBbGuPN8/"]Ozan[/a] Can Turkmen at Turkey's ‌Sekerbank[b]. “On the other hand, the energy supply crisis…"[/b][/p]